Racing & Football Outlook December 13-20, 2011
The double eviction of both Manchester clubs, City and United, from
the Champions League last week into the depressing irrelevance that is
the Europa League was met by the majority of people I know with a fair
degree of amusement given the riches that both clubs – the former in
particular – have at their disposal.
But the obvious implication from last week is that the possibility of
any of their domestic rivals splitting the top two probably got that
little bit smaller.
With both sides able to field squad players in the lesser of the
European competitions the pressure that both would probably have felt
towards the start of the spring from Champions League is gone.
Instead, neither club now has a genuine excuse for not throwing
everything at the fight for the Premier League title.
In many respects the exits of City and United led some to suggest that
the top of the Premier League is not as strong as it used to be,
although with both Arsenal and Chelsea having made the knockout
rounds, I’m not sure that is an entirely logical perspective to take.
I think that it’s just one of those things that happen and obviously
well within the acceptable bounds of probability.
City have a somewhat lame but ready made excuse about it being their
first time in Europe’s premier competition, although this smells a bit
whiffy given the extensive Champions League experience both on the
field and in the dugout.
United, though, are a different case given that we know they are a few
notches shy of their previous imperious selves domestically. Whether
that’s due to a lack of financial stability, Fergie getting old or
simply the team being in a degree of transition only time will
ultimately tell.
Yet, while they are not quite as compelling a side as we’ve become
accustomed to seeing over the years, over whichever period you care to
analyse we’ve also seen United suffer these dips in their results and
come bouncing back with an “I told you so” vibe about them.
A 4-1 win over Wolves is hardly a full indication that this is
happening but it’s potentially the start. If you look at their Outlook
Index figure, you’ll see that they are not a side in decline but a
team who aren’t improving at the same rate of the sides just above and
below them.
Two things now obsess me in my betting. One is measuring the extent of
the margin of error in my numbers. I know my numbers and forecasts are
now very accurate and the trick is knowing how much uncertainty they
contain.
Secondly, in terms of talking about teams from the perspective of
their chance in competitions, it’s a game of pure relativity –
whatever we say about a team’s form in isolation, in terms of the
competition it’s a meaningless measure unless compared with the teams
that they are competing against.
United’s form is set against media coverage that suggests there is
some sort of mini-crisis at the club. The reality, however, is that in
terms of their objective rating, they possess a positive rating, still
sit as equals with Man City at the top of both the Index and, give or
take a couple of points, the Premier League.
The real problem for the club is that they are not improving at the
rate of City or Tottenham.
In the case of City that means they’ve managed to eke out a small
advantage over United and for Spurs that they’re gaining on both clubs
at a rate of knots, in particular on the less progressive United.
Mushing all that together and trying to get a clear picture at the top
of the table is difficult and, referring back to my obsession with
measuring the degree of uncertainty or margin of error in the
forecasts means that even as we approach Christmas, it’s simply too
tight to call.
But that inability to call the division as soon as I would like is no
barrier to continuing to bet.
After all, the degree of uncertainty that I can measure in my
forecasts is the same for everyone and I’ll punt a few quid on my many
millions of calculations being likely to better those based on simply
sticking a finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing.
