BAD NIGHT FOR UNITED BUT OVER-REACTION IN THE MARKET

January 5, 2012
By

An obviously interesting set of results last night most notably the game at St James’.

My immediate analysis is that:-

A/Spurs fans should calm down. That result makes the title no more likely but second place does become a more distinct possibility.

B/ While the title is City’s to lose the margin of error makes it too close to definitively call.

C/ There is a massive over-reaction to United’s defeat and with 4-5 months to go City’s price is way too short with so much football to play.

League forecast

1, Manchester City, 83.65
2, Manchester United, 81.11
3, Tottenham, 76.74
4, Chelsea, 68.05
5, Arsenal, 65.2
6, Liverpool, 64.94
7, Newcastle United, 60.2
8, Stoke, 51.87
9, Everton, 47.54
10, Sunderland, 46.97
11, Fulham, 46.45
12, Norwich, 45.08
13, Aston Villa, 45.07
14, WBA, 44.55
15, Swansea, 42.69
16, Wolves, 36.59
17, Wigan, 35.32
18, QPR, 34.21
19, Bolton, 34
20, Blackburn, 31.31

Outright winner odds forecasts

Manchester City 1.73 58%
Manchester United 3.03 33%
Tottenham 11.11 9%

Top Four odds forecasts

Manchester City 1 100%
Manchester United 1.01 99%
Tottenham 1.07 93%
Chelsea 1.9 53%
Arsenal 3.76 27%
Liverpool 4.72 21%
Newcastle United 15.15 7%
Stoke 250 0%
Swansea 500 0%

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