With some more games tonight I’ll update the figures again tomorrow (Thurs 2/2/12) but for the time being figured it more than interesting to put up the points forecasts following last night’s results and in particular the effect of City’s defeat at Goodison Park. 1, Manchester United, 84.53 2, Manchester City, 83.77 3, Tottenham, 75.48 4, Chelsea, 67.12 5, Liverpool, 62.25 6, Arsenal, 60.4 7, Newcastle United, 59.01 8, Stoke, 49.59 9, Everton, 48.7 10, Norwich, 48.69 11, Aston Villa, 48.38 12, Sunderland, 48.05 13, Fulham, 46.72 14, WBA, 44.62 15, Swansea, 44.46 16, Bolton, 36.37 17, QPR, 35.75 18, Blackburn, 34.68 19, Wolves, 32.55 20, Wigan, 30.7
Forecasts
LATEST PREMIER LEAGUE POINTS FORECASTS NOW ONLINE
In this week’s Racing and Football Outlook I’ve looked at the Championship and in particular what’s happening down at the bottom. For those interested in my latest forecasts for the Premier League and, after a weekend which surely put the nail in Spurs’ title challenge, here is both the latest Premier League points forecast as well as the odds as derived from those forecasts. Please feel free to comment below the post or if there are odds for other markets that you’d like to see today then let me know. 1, Manchester City, 86.5 2, Manchester United, 82.32 3, Tottenham, 73.97 4, Chelsea, 68.24 5, Liverpool, 60.48 6, Arsenal, 60.47 7, Newcastle United, 58.76 8, Stoke, 50.3 9, Norwich, 48.64 10, Sunderland, 48.54 11, Aston Villa, 48.53 12, Fulham, 47.16 13, Everton, 44.69 14, WBA, 44.59 15, Swansea, 44.54 16, Bolton, 36.6 17, Blackburn, 35.69 18, QPR, 35.61 19, Wolves, 33.99 20, Wigan, 32.35 Premier League Winner odds forecast Manchester City 1.42 70% Manchester United 3.55 28% Tottenham 62.5 2%
POOR OLD HOOPS
And for all the QPR fans currently viewing my odds via the qprdot.com forum here is a breakdown on where my software sees QPR as currently finishing in terms of odds. 8,1000 10,1000 11,166.67 12,125 13,52.63 14,35.71 15,19.23 16,11.36 17,6.25 18,5.41 19,4.5 20,4.35
PREMIER LEAGUE POINTS FORECAST UPDATE
Argh. Nothing worse than a week with no league action so what better time to update people with my software’s view of the current Premier League standings. I’ll probably, time and work permitting, get the odds relating to these updated and posted but for the time being here are the points updates. Same old story at the top of the division, as one would largely expect, QPR falling deeper and deeper into the shit at the bottom. 1, Manchester City, 84.19 2, Manchester United, 80.23 3, Tottenham, 75.58 4, Chelsea, 69.73 5, Liverpool, 63.9 6, Arsenal, 63.36 7, Newcastle United, 61.26 8, Stoke, 52.5 9, Norwich, 47.85 10, Everton, 46.06 11, Sunderland, 45.78 12, Swansea, 45.59 13, Aston Villa, 45.38 14, Fulham, 44.14 15, WBA, 42.48 16, Wolves, 37.36 17, Blackburn, 34.86 18, Wigan, 34.09 19, QPR, 33.59 20, Bolton, 33.23
LATEST PREMIER LEAGUE TITLE FORECAST UPDATE
Plenty of football between now and Monday for everything to evolve that little bit more but the latest forecasts that have just popped out of my numbers show that Spurs’ draw today with Wolves has knocked a point off there expected points total. Minimal but obviously not insignificant given the opponents. Will leave the odds update to early next week as my software is busy churning out some 1m simulations and other stuff for this week’s column which will hopefully be of interest and not Premier League related. Anyway EPL top three points forecasts are:- 1, Manchester City, 83.07 2, Manchester United, 80.49 3, Tottenham, 76
SPURS INCHING CLOSER TO SECOND
Quick update after last night’s game at White Hart Lane with an aim to contextualise how much closer that moves Spurs to the top two. I will, time permitting, also publish the prices associated with these forecasts. Check my Twitter feed or subscribe to this blog by using the Subscription feature in the top right of this page. 1, Manchester City, 83.68 2, Manchester United, 80.89 3, Tottenham, 77.03 4, Chelsea, 68.09 5, Arsenal, 65.28 6, Liverpool, 65.06
BAD NIGHT FOR UNITED BUT OVER-REACTION IN THE MARKET
An obviously interesting set of results last night most notably the game at St James’. My immediate analysis is that:- A/Spurs fans should calm down. That result makes the title no more likely but second place does become a more distinct possibility. B/ While the title is City’s to lose the margin of error makes it too close to definitively call. C/ There is a massive over-reaction to United’s defeat and with 4-5 months to go City’s price is way too short with so much football to play. League forecast 1, Manchester City, 83.65 2, Manchester United, 81.11 3, Tottenham, 76.74 4, Chelsea, 68.05 5, Arsenal, 65.2 6, Liverpool, 64.94 7, Newcastle United, 60.2 8, Stoke, 51.87 9, Everton, 47.54 10, Sunderland, 46.97 11, Fulham, 46.45 12, Norwich, 45.08 13, Aston Villa, 45.07 14, WBA, 44.55 15, Swansea, 42.69 16, Wolves, 36.59 17, Wigan, 35.32 18, QPR, 34.21 19, Bolton, 34 20, Blackburn, 31.31 Outright winner odds forecasts Manchester City 1.73 58% Manchester United 3.03 33% Tottenham 11.11 9% Top Four odds forecasts Manchester City 1 100% Manchester United 1.01 99% Tottenham 1.07 93% Chelsea 1.9 53% Arsenal 3.76 27% Liverpool 4.72 21% Newcastle United 15.15 7% Stoke 250 0%
UPDATED PREMIER LEAGUE FORECASTS 4/1/12
A new feature I’m keen to slowly start introducing to this blog are some of my points forecasts which I feature as part of my weekly Racing and Football Outlook column. I hope it goes without saying that I won’t be printing anything here that is exclusively for the paper, namely Index ratings, True Odds for matches or for that matter anything that has featured in or that relates to the content in each week’s paper. Rather what I hope to publish here can act as a supplement to what is printed in the paper and which for reasons of space couldn’t be published. Equally I won’t be publishing anything on the blog which I might be featuring in next week’s paper so as to keep everything special in print and for this site to act merely as an extension and archive of what appears in the paper. To kick off and following last night’s games in the Premier League here are my latest points forecasts. Discussion etc is always welcome as are Facebook Likes, Twitter RTs and Google +1′s which you can add at the bottom of this (and every) post on this blog. Alex 1, Manchester City, 83.52
