First published in Racing & Football Outlook January 3-9, 2012 We are now past the halfway stage in the Championship so there’s no better time to look back over the last five months to see who has and who has not performed up to expectations and what that means for the second half of the season. It’s always good to start the season with a strongly held contention that comes good and that was certainly the case in going against the chances of Leicester. The Foxes started 2011-12 as short as 5-1 with some bookies and that was a great starting point for some early season easy pickings given that they had little going for them apart from a relatively chunky purse and an incoming big-name manager in Sven-Goran Eriksson. Their biggest failing was a very low Outlook Index base from which to build and the sense that it would require more than money and the Swede to bring about the level of change needed. After a couple of months at the Walkers Stadium, what little remained of Eriksson’s reputation was all but burnt out. Even so, and even with my most pessimistic hat on I didn’t expect his time
RFO Index columns
These are columns that have featured as my weekly columns in the Racing and Football Outlook each week
VALUE LIES WITH UNITED AT THE TOP
First published in Racing & Football Outlook December 27, 2011-January 2, 2012 We might not yet be quite at the halfway stage in this season’s Premier League but that’s no reason not to take a whistle-stop tour through the significant parts of the division to assess what’s changed since August, and, more importantly, the significance and meaning of those changes when it comes to determining the outcomes of the various betting markets. It’s important to be able to relate the change that inevitably occurs at every club to the topic at hand. The best illustration of what I mean comes when we look at a team like Liverpool. Since Kenny Dalglish returned as manager the trend has been upward for the Anfield side and that improvement has carried over into this season. However, while they might be improving as a team, they aren’t necessarily moving any closer to actually winning the league – and let’s not forget that some people were actually talking in those terms back in the summer. This is all to do with relativism and, put simply, if the clubs above Liverpool are improving at a faster rate (and most are), then regardless of any good work
ADDICKS TITLE PRICE IS AN EARLY XMAS GIFT
Racing & Football Outlook December 21-26, 2011 I hung my hat on Huddersfield at the start of the season and, although I’ve been able to lock in a fair bit of profit with them in the first part of the season, results have not gone well for the Terriers recently. A heavy defeat to Swindon in the FA Cup was the first warning that Lee Clark’s side was starting to show some frailties and not long after that their unbeaten run in the league came to an end. The fact that their 43-game undefeated run came to an end against fellow League 1 front-runners Charlton at the end of last month means that it’s definitely time to revisit the numbers to look for an approach to take into the next phase of the season. Charlton are the obvious first port of call, not least because of the excellent job that Chris Powell is doing at The Valley, and perhaps he’ll become the first black manager to achieve a significant breakthrough at the top level. With Paul Ince and the late Keith Alexander paving the way it surely can’t be long before this last vestige of a very ancient looking facet
TEAM FORM MEANS LITTLE IN ISOLATION
Racing & Football Outlook December 13-20, 2011 The double eviction of both Manchester clubs, City and United, from the Champions League last week into the depressing irrelevance that is the Europa League was met by the majority of people I know with a fair degree of amusement given the riches that both clubs – the former in particular – have at their disposal. But the obvious implication from last week is that the possibility of any of their domestic rivals splitting the top two probably got that little bit smaller. With both sides able to field squad players in the lesser of the European competitions the pressure that both would probably have felt towards the start of the spring from Champions League is gone. Instead, neither club now has a genuine excuse for not throwing everything at the fight for the Premier League title. In many respects the exits of City and United led some to suggest that the top of the Premier League is not as strong as it used to be, although with both Arsenal and Chelsea having made the knockout rounds, I’m not sure that is an entirely logical perspective to take. I think that it’s just
O’NEILL’S A TOP GAFFER BUT NO ROOM FOR SENTIMENT
Racing & Football Outlook December 6-12, 2011 After seemingly countless associations, negotiations and, ultimately, rejections and nearly 16 months out of management my favourite manager, Martin O’Neill, is back in the Premier League in charge of Sunderland. Over the years O’Neill has provided me with a small but profitable angle, where I simply bet on the progress of his sides being greater than the market supposes. Whether it’s Wycombe, Leicester, Celtic or Aston Villa I have been well rewarded for my troubles. Of course, Celtic excepted, I’ve never really been able to focus on O’Neill’s chances across a very broad range of markets given that he has yet to take the reins at a club with a genuine stab at the Premier League title. That means my activities have been restricted to spread betting point totals and various ancillary markets, such as top-ten finish. Now that he’s taken his seat in the Stadium of Light dugout, that’s not going to change except that there may be an opportunity to oppose Sunderland in the relegation or rock-bottom markets. Before his return to management, O’Neill had reportedly rejected a few approaches, such as when he seemed to be destined for the seat
PILGRIMS SHOW SIGNS OF PROGRESS
Racing & Football Outlook November 29-December 5, 2011 Four months ago with the season about to get underway, one of the biggest conundrums that I faced was in League 2 and just what I was going to do about Plymouth. Argyle had dropped back into the bottom tier and the consensus seemed to be that, given their terrible financial plight and consecutive relegations, the writing was on the wall for the Pilgrims. What wasn’t quite so obvious was just how much further and how quickly the club would decline from a ratings perspective and what that meant in terms of predicting their outcome both for this season and in the medium-to-longer term. When watching a club fall in this way it’s like we know there is a length of rope attached to them that will at some point break their fall, we just don’t know quite how long it is. Will it be enough to halt them before they fall through the trapdoor of the Football League or will it be short enough a length to keep them in League 2. In many respects their predicament was even worse than that. Non-league football was a clearly a better outcome than
UNDERRATED SHRIMPERS GOOD VALUE FOR GLORY
Racing & Football Outlook November 22-28, 2011 I started this season as bullishly as is possible in recommending mortgaging/ selling into slavery the wife/husband, kids and house and placing the whole lot on Crawley to win League 2. The downside with that level of enthusiasm, at least when it comes to my own betting, is that there’s an equivalent amount of panic soon after. Despite Crawley’s excellent start to the season and consequently their price shortening, I came back into print and on Twitter to recommend locking in some profit on the first sign of Steve Evans’ side dropping off. While it was nice to show readers a tasty profit before the leaves had fallen from the trees, my level of panic about Crawley after seeing them experience a couple of defeats, albeit extremely heavy ones, was such that I’ve spent some time since then reassessing whether that was the right call. At the time it felt panicky to stay with them for such a short time but the essence of my betting is purely about price. When I’d recommended backing them they were a ridiculous price to win League 2, and when it came to taking an advantage of
ENOUGH VALUE TO BE KEEN ON ROVERS TO DROP
Racing & Football Outlook November 15-21, 2011 In terms of business sponsorship plans it seemed an odd choice for an Indian poultry company to suddenly take on Blackburn Rovers and, so far at least, the partnership hasn’t exactly taken flight. In much the same way as Venky’s chickens in fact. Just two years ago they finished in the top half of the Premier League but last season saw them steadily drifting down the table. The decline was perhaps apparent in the first few months under Sam Allardyce and, with the first anniversary of Steve Kean’s appointment as Big Sam’s replacement fast approaching, Rovers are just one place off the bottom with a particularly desperate look about them. It’s not even Christmas yet. Surprisingly, though, the new owners have kept Kean in the hot seat – and one wonders whether it’s through patience or stubbornness – despite what looks like increasingly despairing displays of fan protest. Since Kean took charge, Blackburn’s Outlook Index rating has declined steadily, like the football equivalent of a slow puncture. Just about the best thing you can say about Rovers at the moment – and it’s not particularly positive – is that at least they aren’t
BIG GAME TO COME BUT TOON HARD TO SHIFT
Racing & Football Outlook November 8-14, 2011 NOW is a great time to use my league forecasts to create some fantastically interesting interpretations of what’s happening in the Premier League. Apart from the team-by-team specifics, more of which in a moment, it’s possible to see evidence in the forecasts of some of the underlying mechanics of the competition. The current final forecasted points totals suggest that there are three distinct collections of teams in the competition. At the top is a two-team group comprised solely of the two Manchester juggernauts. They are separated from the rest by a significant projected points advantage which, between City and Spurs, who are currently forecasted to finish in third place, amounts to more than 15 points. Even addressing the uncertainty that still exists at this relatively early part of the season, the overwhelming likelihood is that the winner will be one of these two and I guess that, apart from a couple of deluded managers of the ‘mathematically possible’ mindset, few would deviate from that view. Below the top two there are just over seven points between third-ranked Spurs and seventh-placed Arsenal in the final forecasts. Along with Harry Redknapp’s outfit, that small group
TIME TO LAY BLUES TO MAKE SURE OF FINISHING IN THE BLACK
Racing & Football Outlook November 1-7, 2011 The outcome of this season’s Premier League is obviously a long way from being settled, even though Man City are five points clear. However, after almost three months of relative inconclusiveness, City’s 6-1 trouncing of Man United at Old Trafford was unquestionably the most meaningful result of the season to date. Previous to that, United had been just about holding on to their first-place position in my end-of-season forecasts. But the amazing score reshaped my analysis to the extent that City are now forecasted to take the title by more than three points. However, before City fans get the bunting out or any bookmakers look for free publicity by paying out early, Christmas is still nearly two months away, so between now and May there is time for all manner of changes. Equally, my current forecasted margin of victory for City is marginally less than the advantage they currently enjoy in the league table. There is plenty of time for the Manchester duopoly to be broken but, personally, I hope that United come good. That’s because at the start of the season I elected to eschew my recent policy of backing both United
