In ratings terms in the Premier League, things have been kept largely
static with clubs largely remaining unchanged from where they started
the season after a very lightly traded transfer window.
However, while things are relatively stable on the field, off it, as
we saw this week, it’s blowing a gale in terms of talking points, some
of which will no doubt shake up the current picture over time.
The weekend was all about the offensive situation at Liverpool –
seemingly easy to resolve – regarding Luis Suarez.
But the more relevant story as far as betting is concerned is the
narrative arc that spanned Harry Redknapp’s trial and acquittal,and
John Terry and QPR, which continued rather interestingly into Fabio
Capello’s abrupt and largely unlamented departure from the England
dugout.
It’s obviously interesting on a news level but also has a major
consequence on our betting because of the impact on Tottenham, not
just for this season but also in the longer term, given the assumption
that next season they’ll be looking for a new manager.
I make no secret of my admiration for managers and the view that they
are the most significant factor in the success of a club – more so
than money, more so than players.
This is never more so than at the top of the game, where the law of
diminishing returns starts to kick in heavily, as we’re seeing with
the financial firepower of Man City.
Despite all that lolly, the big names and a decent manager, they still
have to fight like everyone else, with no guarantee of success. With a
manager of proven worth at Eastlands, though, they would clear the
other 19 teams by a minimum of six points and if you don’t believe me,
we can talk again in 12 months time.
But back to Redknapp. It’s understandable that he’s the obvious call
but aside from the misguided notion that being England manager is in
some way the pinnacle of a managerial career, I don’t see why he’d
want to leave. His current job at Tottenham is potentially a
career-defining role given that he is close to achieving meaningful
success.
As the table below shows, Redknapp’s career before his arrival at
White Hart Lane was a record of excellence apart from a couple of
blips at Southampton and towards the end of his time at Upton Park.
But any doubts – and there were some – about his ability to transfer
his skills to a big club have disappeared as he’s slowly gone about
making Spurs a top outfit.
The measure of that change is best viewed from a range of forecasted
odds I’ve created for those markets where Spurs are available.
Apart from showing some tasty betting opportunities, they also make me
wonder why – beyond pride and sheer flattery – Redknapp doesn’t simply
reject the England job in the way that a lot of his peers have ruled
themselves out. Of course, they’ve been able to use Redknapp as the
excuse for not wanting one of the most thankless jobs on Earth.
Tottenham’s chance of winning the title has long gone for this season.
My forecasts currently have them finishing about nine points off the
pace, which prices them at about 45 to win the league.
Beyond the fight for top spot things are a bit more competitive. I
recommended Spurs at bigger odds for a top-three finish earlier in the
season and there are still some decent prices about Spurs.

Success at work depends on many different factors but to my mind one
of the primary drivers in making sure things go to plan is having a
decent boss.
Of course, ‘decent’ can take many forms but as a minimum it’s
incumbent on any boss to make sure their employees know exactly what
is expected of them at work and that they are given the tools and
materials to have a realistic chance of matching that expectation.
Without these two foundations in place, the chances of the employee
succeeding are less than if they are clear.
Those thoughts came to mind this week with the departure of Simon
Grayson from Leeds United after, as is nearly always the case at
Elland Road, an interesting period in the dugout.
Having reached the top of West Yorkshire’s greasiest pole it surely
came as no surprise to Grayson when his time was up – partly because
he had the always interesting Ken Bates as his boss but also as the
short-term results have not been up to snuff, not least the heavy
defeat against Birmingham in Grayson’s final match in charge.
Now, I don’t suppose for a second that Ken Bates was shy in coming
forward with the first of my two prerequisites for what makes a good
boss, and making his expectations of his manager clear.
However, I’m not quite sure he’s necessarily fulfilled the second part
of the bargain given that over the past few years Leeds have
definitely been a selling club and, just as significantly, are now
massively reliant on the loan market for new ‘signings’.
Patience is not necessarily a virtue the Leeds owner has in abundance,
so after a decent enough season so far – viewed through a more
reasonable lens than that possessed by Bates – Grayson is on his way.
I take two things from this. First, Grayson did an excellent job at
the club since moving to Yorkshire from Blackpool at Christmas 2008
where it’s also fair to say he did a good job in doing some of the
groundwork for the Tangerines’ future success.
To the right is a snapshot of Grayson’s time as manager in terms of
the change in Leeds’ Outlook Index rating over that period.
As you would expect, after their promotion from League 1, he’s
definitely net positive in terms of an overall improvement during his
time in charge. However, unless you are Arsene Wenger the past seems
to carry little weight in the modern game. The necessity to deliver in
the short term is the criterion by which most managers keep their jobs
and that was Grayson’s problem.
Although it was viewed at the time almost as a formaility, taking
Leeds up from League 1 was a decent achievement Grayson never really
got much credit for.
And the way in which he managed without really having been given the
tools to match Bates’ lofty requirements is also a pointer to
following him when he fetches up at his next club.
I like to follow – and usually back – managers who make a habit of
doing well at clubs by getting the most out of the players at their
disposal. There are relatively few of them around and, while I’m not
saying Grayson will continue in the vein in which he’s started, if you
looks at the change in Index rating that he has brought about during
his short career, he’s definitely one to watch next time round.
The second point to take out of this is that despite the negativity of
a managerial casualty, Leeds are well enough placed to have a stab at
the play-offs in a compettion that is always hard to call and largely
defined by the inconsistency of its front-runners and challengers.
In that environment any team can come through. An automatic promotion
spot seems as out of the question as when I considered it at the start
of the season, but a finish in the play-off zone isn’t a wild
aspiration for whoever takes the reins.

The dynamics behind a market are worth looking into as sometimes a
superficial look can give a misleading impression of what’s really
going on.
A case in point is the League 1 relegation market. A quick glance at
the Betfair prices would lead many to suppose that, with an overround
closer to four figures than two, there was little point in checking
out the prices.
However, that overround is only so high because of the very short
prices offered against the names at the bottom of the market or the
top of the league table. In fact, among the teams fighting to avoid
dropping into League 2 the prices warrant a close look.
There is a significant overlap in terms of strength between the bottom
of League 1 and the top of League 2 with the consequence that much of
the League 1 relegation market is often made up of teams who have only
recently celebrated escaping the basement division.
This season, for example, Chesterfield and Wycombe are fighting
against an immediate return to League 2 less than 12 months after
winning promotions as champions and third-placed finishers. If you
were to place them back into League 2 now, their Outlook Index ratings
would put them down at around the level of play-off sides.
My points forecasts can add some context to the league picture and
confirm that five clubs have a very immediate problem – along with
Chesterfield and Wycombe are Rochdale, Walsall and Yeovil.
The league table suggests the situation is a little bit closer, with
seven clubs separated by just four points. None of those clubs are
safe but my forecasts show that the balance of probability is starting
to stack up against the sides I’ve mentioned.
Of course, a large portion of that is already baked into the
relegation prices for the sides right at the bottom. However, when
comparing my prices against the market I think there is still a few
quid to be made in exploiting the increasingly desperate plight of a
couple of teams.
I’ve already mentioned the bottom two and with good reason. As long as
the table continues to suggest the situation is more competitive than
my figures do, it’s easy to back the sides looking the least healthy
to go down – that’s Chesterfield and Wycombe.
We’ve printed my forecasted league table and forecasted odds which
show that both sides are available at quite tasty prices – at least
they’re tasty if you don’t mind the taste of long odds-on shots, which
I know some of you don’t.
However, putting a few quid down to exploit the 1-2 (67 per cent) on
Chesterfield is more than worth the effort given that I put their
chances of relegation back to the division they won only last May up
at 79 per cent.
Returning to the close appearance of the league table, it’s very
likely that you’ll be able to get orders matched at bigger odds for
the bottom two, given that the spread between back and lay goes well
out beyond Evens.
I don’t suppose anyone will be so generous as to lay odds-against but
1.6 about Chesterfield was recently matched and there could well be
some earlier backers looking to lay off and lock in a profit, offering
the opportunity for others to profit.

It’s done me little harm that for the most of the season I’ve had
little in the way of interest in the bottom of the Championship.
Back in late September, I recommended my sole tip in this term’s
relegation market – the relatively easy decision to go strongly with
the idea that this wasn’t going to be Doncaster’s year. That
recommendation looks broadly on track even if it hasn’t yet been a
tradeable one.
Since then, I’ve been keeping an eye on the situation down there to
see who might be joining Rovers in League 1 next season.
There have been plenty of candidates but one name has seemed as
constant as that of Doncaster in the bottom three, and that’s Coventry
City.
Even at my advancing years, Coventry have been a constant in the top
two divisions throughout my lifetime and are currently the
longest-staying residents in the Championship, having been there for
11 years since their relegation from the Premier League in 2001.
However, that record seems threatened now and you have to go back to
1964 and the time of the dinosaurs and Jimmy Hill for the last time
they found themselves in the bottom half of the English league.
Is that day coming again or is there a way out of their current
predicament? They showed no small amount of fight in defeating
Middlesbrough 3-1 at the Ricoh Arena at the weekend but a quick glance
at the Outlook Index and the league table shows that the problem for
Coventry and manager Andy Thorn is their absolutely catastrophic away
form.
It was poor last season but for the Sky Blues not to have won a single
game away from the Ricoh this term is probably the sole factor why
they are where they are.
Whatever the reason for that state of affairs it’s highly likely that
they will deviate back towards a mean of away points between now and
the end of the season simply because that away record is out of kilter
with their home form. But the question is whether that in itself would
be sufficient to see them avoid the drop.
It might be given that it’s never simply a matter of looking at a
single team’s situation in isolation. Instead, when commenting on
league positions it’s where a team sits in relation to other sides
that is the relevant question.
In Coventry’s case, things aren’t going well but there are other clubs
who look almost, if not equally, stricken, notably Nottingham Forest
and Ipswich as well as the aforementioned Doncaster.
In terms of their Index Trend value, Coventry certainly aren’t dead
and buried and, with just a handful of Index points separating them
from the clubs around them, there is still hope.
However, the problem for Coventry is that away record which, allied
with their remaining fixture list, paints a very gloomy picture for
the Sky Blues in terms of my points forecasts.
The current forecasts suggest that, even if the picture looks likely
to be close, Coventry are more than likely to have been slightly cut
adrift along with Doncaster on 43 and 44 points respectively, some six
or seven points away from their nearest rivals, Forest.
If there is some measure of optimism, however, it comes from the fact
that a relatively large group of five clubs is looking to avoid
finishing in 22nd place –  Peterborough, Bristol City, Millwall,
Ipswich and Forest – all of whom look wobbly enough to slip below the
water line.
However, for Coventry to survive it’s going to take more than simply
relying on a couple of teams to have a disastrous run – they simply
must improve their away form to have even the slightest chance of
staying up.
Running those forecasts through my odds generating algorithms shows
that, as you would imagine, Andy Thorn’s side are seriously odds-on
for the drop.
On current standings, I give them an 86 percent chance of finishing up
in League 1 next season which makes them quite a tasty bet to go down
given that they are backable at around the 1-3 mark. And, with
liquidity light in the exchange markets, it could well be possible to
get orders matched at a a substantially bigger price.

It’s always difficult when trying to make a few quid from your betting
to get involved when the team you support comes under your internal
microscope.
Once upon a time I took it as a sign of my betting maturity to regard
Swindon as any other team and back or lay them as I saw fit, an
activity which, it has to be said, bought me no pleasure.
But more recently, aside from a throwaway tenner when I see them in
the flesh, I have tried to simply ignore their presence.
Of course, that’s relatively easy when they are a failing club,
unlikely to trouble the scorers in any of the markets I try to do
business in.
However, this season, whatever I might want to do intellectually is
compromised by the fact that Swindon are becoming more and more of a
consideration at the top of League 2, a division in which I already
have a complicated and compromised position.
For the reasons as to why my position is so precarious, I suggest you
look at my blog (details below.)
So, while Swindon have slowly started to make their presence felt at
the top of League 2 under Paolo Di Canio, they have started to also
show their worth as a fairly decent cup side.
Progress in the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy is one thing but there were
signs of hysteria when the Robins beat Wigan in the third round of the
FA Cup – although at the time, they very narrowly beat the second XI
of what was then the Premier League’s second-bottom team.
Cheering for the people of north Wiltshire it might have been but I’m
less convinced it’s indicative of a side in the throes of a solid
revival. I have to say, though, that they are a vast improvement on
what has been seen at the County Ground in the past decade.
The key in assessing Swindon and working out the most likely outcomes
at the top of League 2 is to strip away the hysteria and hype that is
the inevitable consequence of having a manager as high profile and
charismatic as Di Canio.
After starting the season with a play-off place looking the most
likely outcome, it’s interesting to see how that has changed.
While their fate is partly in their own hands, it also depends on what
happens to the three sides above them and, as my forecasts show, my
software cannot currently split Crawley, Cheltenham and Southend, all
of whom are forecast to finish on 84 points, against a current
forecast of 80 points for Swindon.
That’s two points closer than the current gap in the table but still
only a play-off finish and, with three clubs above them, someone will
have to fall away or be caught for Swindon to get an automatic spot.
From an Outlook Index Trend perspective this is where optimism around
Swindon is strongest.
Naturally, I expect the teams challenging at the top to be among those
with the strongest Trend figures and that’s certainly the case in
League 2.
Cheltenham are miles clear in that respect and clearly the team in
form, yet Swindon’s Index Trend figure is increasing steadily. With
consistency the factor that will separate and define the clubs in the
division, those with the higher Index Trend numbers are the ones to
watch.
With Crawley flat in terms of their Index rating, they are clearly the
most vulnerable of the quartet, but I wouldn’t rule them out yet.
And if one thing was to damn Swindon’s chances then it would be their
away form which is markedly worse than the others teams at the top of
the table.
Comparing my prices to those at the top of the table, the market is
skewed by Crawley, whose price is still too short. That means there’s
value to be had in following Southend and especially a still massively
priced Cheltenham but not, as it currently appears, Swindon.
Still, with the Cheltenham price so big in comparison with my
assessment, being a supporter can take second place.
Who said football betting was easy, even when your team is winning?

When doing the Premier League half-term reports a couple of weeks back
it was inevitable that, given the space available, I was going to
concentrate on the situation at the top of the league.
That situation is changing with every game that passes and it’s great
in this modern world that I’ve been able to update and publish my
forecasts as and when they happen via Twitter and my blog.
Thanks to everyone who has been in correspondence with me about this
and contributed to the debate around this season’s eventual outcome.
You can find both my Twitter and blog addresses at the bottom of the
page.
Now is the time to turn to the bottom of the Premier League to see
what’s changed since the start of the season and, more importantly,
what’s likely to play out between now and May.
I’ve written a couple of times about the relegation scene since making
my pre-season tips, but less than I would have liked to, particularly
given that there’s a fairly conclusive picture developing there.
I started my year with the tip of simply backing each of the three
teams that were promoted from last season’s Championship – QPR,
Swansea and Norwich – and at least with respect to two of that trio,
it looks like I simply got it wrong.
Swansea and Norwich have both made an excellent start to the season
and both sides have taken full advantage of the fact that there is
very little between the bottom 12 or so clubs in the Premier League.
It’s a credit to both sides’ managers that it seems quite likely that
both will be spending another season in the top flight. Norwich even
went so far as to start the new year in the top half of the table,
although the compression in the competition means they’re still within
ten points of the relegation zone.
What renders their chances of staying up so great, however, is the
quality of the sides below them, and assuming Paul Lambert’s side can
keep going in the same vein as in the first half of the season, they
won’t be going anywhere.
Swansea started the year with the lowest Outlook Index rating in the
division but it’s a measure of the excellent work going on under
Brendan Rodgers that they’re now just a six per cent chance on my
Index-derived final league table forecasts to be relegated.
But enough of the positives – where can we make some money?
Despite tipping all three to go down, I still expect to come out of
the season on top given the way that QPR, despite a superficially
decent start to the season, never really broke free from their initial
Index rating in the way that their fellow promoted sides have done.
In the current league table managerless QPR may be fourth from bottom
but the Index tells a more pessimistic story with a 58 per cent chance
that they’ll be back in the Championship next term.
A few weeks ago, when both Bolton and Blackburn had a somewhat
terminal look to them, those chances would have been slightly less.
However, both the Lancashire sides, along with other potentially
threatened outfits such as Sunderland, have started to raise their
games. That means that QPR, given that they are going backwards, look
to be slipping into the danger zone.
That’s not to say that relegation is certain. It isn’t. But as our
table shows it’s going to be very difficult for them to finish above
16th place and, to do that, they must improve on what they’ve shown
since their return to the top flight, particularly what we’ve seen in
the past couple of months.
QPR’s owners have decided on a change of manager but that seems harsh
on Neil Warnock to me and it will be difficult for anyone to turn
things around.
In terms of betting, there’s still plenty to play for. First, it’s
amazing that Swansea are still as short as they are, at least in
comparison with my numbers. Even though my pre-season tip was wrong
something can still be taken out of that.
However, it’s QPR I’m interested in. Having tipped them to drop at
3.35, I’m going to recommend playing up that position given that their
relegation price is still relatively big at 2-1 compared with my own,
odds-on, assessment of their predicament.

As you’d imagine it isn’t good news. Still, it looks like they will be competitive in next seasons Championship.

Relegation odds/forecast
QPR 1.23 81%
Bolton 1.71 58%
Blackburn 1.73 58%
Wolves 1.97 51%
Wigan 2 50%
Aston Villa 250 0%
Swansea 250 0%
Norwich 500 0%
Stoke 500 0%

1, Manchester United, 84.53
2, Manchester City, 83.77
3, Tottenham, 75.48
4, Chelsea, 67.12
5, Liverpool, 62.25
6, Arsenal, 60.4
7, Newcastle United, 59.01
8, Stoke, 49.59
9, Everton, 48.7
10, Norwich, 48.69
11, Aston Villa, 48.38
12, Sunderland, 48.05
13, Fulham, 46.72
14, WBA, 44.62
15, Swansea, 44.46
16, Bolton, 36.37
17, QPR, 35.75
18, Blackburn, 34.68
19, Wolves, 32.55
20, Wigan, 30.7

For those interested in my latest forecasts for the Premier League and, after a weekend which surely put the nail in Spurs’ title challenge, here is both the latest Premier League points forecast as well as the odds as derived from those forecasts.

Please feel free to comment below the post or if there are odds for other markets that you’d like to see today then let me know.

1, Manchester City, 86.5
2, Manchester United, 82.32
3, Tottenham, 73.97
4, Chelsea, 68.24
5, Liverpool, 60.48
6, Arsenal, 60.47
7, Newcastle United, 58.76
8, Stoke, 50.3
9, Norwich, 48.64
10, Sunderland, 48.54
11, Aston Villa, 48.53
12, Fulham, 47.16
13, Everton, 44.69
14, WBA, 44.59
15, Swansea, 44.54
16, Bolton, 36.6
17, Blackburn, 35.69
18, QPR, 35.61
19, Wolves, 33.99
20, Wigan, 32.35

Premier League Winner odds forecast

Manchester City 1.42 70%
Manchester United 3.55 28%
Tottenham 62.5 2%

8,1000
10,1000
11,166.67
12,125
13,52.63
14,35.71
15,19.23
16,11.36
17,6.25
18,5.41
19,4.5
20,4.35