Racing & Football Outlook December 6-12, 2011 After seemingly countless associations, negotiations and, ultimately, rejections and nearly 16 months out of management my favourite manager, Martin O’Neill, is back in the Premier League in charge of Sunderland. Over the years O’Neill has provided me with a small but profitable angle, where I simply bet on the progress of his sides being greater than the market supposes. Whether it’s Wycombe, Leicester, Celtic or Aston Villa I have been well rewarded for my troubles. Of course, Celtic excepted, I’ve never really been able to focus on O’Neill’s chances across a very broad range of markets given that he has yet to take the reins at a club with a genuine stab at the Premier League title. That means my activities have been restricted to spread betting point totals and various ancillary markets, such as top-ten finish. Now that he’s taken his seat in the Stadium of Light dugout, that’s not going to change except that there may be an opportunity to oppose Sunderland in the relegation or rock-bottom markets. Before his return to management, O’Neill had reportedly rejected a few approaches, such as when he seemed to be destined for the seat
PILGRIMS SHOW SIGNS OF PROGRESS
Racing & Football Outlook November 29-December 5, 2011 Four months ago with the season about to get underway, one of the biggest conundrums that I faced was in League 2 and just what I was going to do about Plymouth. Argyle had dropped back into the bottom tier and the consensus seemed to be that, given their terrible financial plight and consecutive relegations, the writing was on the wall for the Pilgrims. What wasn’t quite so obvious was just how much further and how quickly the club would decline from a ratings perspective and what that meant in terms of predicting their outcome both for this season and in the medium-to-longer term. When watching a club fall in this way it’s like we know there is a length of rope attached to them that will at some point break their fall, we just don’t know quite how long it is. Will it be enough to halt them before they fall through the trapdoor of the Football League or will it be short enough a length to keep them in League 2. In many respects their predicament was even worse than that. Non-league football was a clearly a better outcome than
UNDERRATED SHRIMPERS GOOD VALUE FOR GLORY
Racing & Football Outlook November 22-28, 2011 I started this season as bullishly as is possible in recommending mortgaging/ selling into slavery the wife/husband, kids and house and placing the whole lot on Crawley to win League 2. The downside with that level of enthusiasm, at least when it comes to my own betting, is that there’s an equivalent amount of panic soon after. Despite Crawley’s excellent start to the season and consequently their price shortening, I came back into print and on Twitter to recommend locking in some profit on the first sign of Steve Evans’ side dropping off. While it was nice to show readers a tasty profit before the leaves had fallen from the trees, my level of panic about Crawley after seeing them experience a couple of defeats, albeit extremely heavy ones, was such that I’ve spent some time since then reassessing whether that was the right call. At the time it felt panicky to stay with them for such a short time but the essence of my betting is purely about price. When I’d recommended backing them they were a ridiculous price to win League 2, and when it came to taking an advantage of
ENOUGH VALUE TO BE KEEN ON ROVERS TO DROP
Racing & Football Outlook November 15-21, 2011 In terms of business sponsorship plans it seemed an odd choice for an Indian poultry company to suddenly take on Blackburn Rovers and, so far at least, the partnership hasn’t exactly taken flight. In much the same way as Venky’s chickens in fact. Just two years ago they finished in the top half of the Premier League but last season saw them steadily drifting down the table. The decline was perhaps apparent in the first few months under Sam Allardyce and, with the first anniversary of Steve Kean’s appointment as Big Sam’s replacement fast approaching, Rovers are just one place off the bottom with a particularly desperate look about them. It’s not even Christmas yet. Surprisingly, though, the new owners have kept Kean in the hot seat – and one wonders whether it’s through patience or stubbornness – despite what looks like increasingly despairing displays of fan protest. Since Kean took charge, Blackburn’s Outlook Index rating has declined steadily, like the football equivalent of a slow puncture. Just about the best thing you can say about Rovers at the moment – and it’s not particularly positive – is that at least they aren’t
BIG GAME TO COME BUT TOON HARD TO SHIFT
Racing & Football Outlook November 8-14, 2011 NOW is a great time to use my league forecasts to create some fantastically interesting interpretations of what’s happening in the Premier League. Apart from the team-by-team specifics, more of which in a moment, it’s possible to see evidence in the forecasts of some of the underlying mechanics of the competition. The current final forecasted points totals suggest that there are three distinct collections of teams in the competition. At the top is a two-team group comprised solely of the two Manchester juggernauts. They are separated from the rest by a significant projected points advantage which, between City and Spurs, who are currently forecasted to finish in third place, amounts to more than 15 points. Even addressing the uncertainty that still exists at this relatively early part of the season, the overwhelming likelihood is that the winner will be one of these two and I guess that, apart from a couple of deluded managers of the ‘mathematically possible’ mindset, few would deviate from that view. Below the top two there are just over seven points between third-ranked Spurs and seventh-placed Arsenal in the final forecasts. Along with Harry Redknapp’s outfit, that small group
TIME TO LAY BLUES TO MAKE SURE OF FINISHING IN THE BLACK
Racing & Football Outlook November 1-7, 2011 The outcome of this season’s Premier League is obviously a long way from being settled, even though Man City are five points clear. However, after almost three months of relative inconclusiveness, City’s 6-1 trouncing of Man United at Old Trafford was unquestionably the most meaningful result of the season to date. Previous to that, United had been just about holding on to their first-place position in my end-of-season forecasts. But the amazing score reshaped my analysis to the extent that City are now forecasted to take the title by more than three points. However, before City fans get the bunting out or any bookmakers look for free publicity by paying out early, Christmas is still nearly two months away, so between now and May there is time for all manner of changes. Equally, my current forecasted margin of victory for City is marginally less than the advantage they currently enjoy in the league table. There is plenty of time for the Manchester duopoly to be broken but, personally, I hope that United come good. That’s because at the start of the season I elected to eschew my recent policy of backing both United
TOP OF CHAMPIONSHIP STILL TOO HARD TO CALL
Racing & Football Outlook October 25-31, 2011 While I took a strong view a few weeks ago that Doncaster would finish bottom of the Championship, the top of the table is much more difficult to work out. As with last season, the above average competitiveness in this division allied with the failure to find a standout team before the halfway mark means I’m forced to take a safety-first approach. There’s a lot to be said for generating odds for the range of match-based markets and then extending that further into the various outrights, but, on the flip side, there’s so much uncertainty. It’s a measure of that uncertainty that as we reach the end of the third month of the season there remain as many questions as there have been answers. Even among the teams setting the pace, there is the feeling that this season looks a little like last term, albeit without a side like QPR to make something approaching the running. Birmingham embody that uncertainty in every respect. With their owner facing the prospect of a possible term in prison and a new manager at the helm after relegation last season, the general impression both at the start
LIVERPOOL STILL A LAY FOR TOP FOUR
Racing & Football Outlook October 18-24, 2011 Unlike Arsenal, Liverpool’s slow decline over the past few seasons had not seen them drop out of the top six or seven in quite the same disastrous way as has happened to the Gunners this year. Yet the premature enthusiasm that surrounded the removal of Roy Hodgson and the arrival and first few results back under Kenny Dalglish’s management is not quite in step with the actual situation. Punters need to take a more objective view than the singularly peculiar perspective of the average Liverpool fan who has a long-enough memory to have first-hand experience of winning a major trophy. It was an interesting couple of months watching Dalglish galvanise and fashion a motivated and winning side from largely the same components that had failed to come together under Hodgson. In recent times I’ve never seen a clearer indication that it is the performances of managers we should analyse closely rather than individual players. In bringing together the Liverpool team as he did, it was inevitable that punters and fans seeing the team stabilise their performances would quickly confuse that with them returning to the big time. It will take time to really
CHARLTON GET THE HEADLINES BUT TERRIERS STILL IN THERE
Racing & Football Outlook October 11-17, 2011 League 1 is not proving an easy call this season and, while I’ve stuck to my pre-season guns with Huddersfield, I’m happy for now with what I’ve got on the table, despite a competitive field. Although close, the competition can be split into two and, as I’ve recently commented, the bottom half of the table is engaged in the most uncertain situation in any of the four English divisions. This week I’m concentrating on the top to see if there’s anything else worth picking at in addition to my punt on the Terriers. There is no reason to be concerned about my position. With over two months of the season done, Lee Clark’s side remain unbeaten in the league and are nicely poised going into the period of uncertainty that comes with the change in the weather. It’s an idea that fascinates me more and more and I don’t do much with it. Traditionally, football supporters and punters tend to have the Christmas fixtures and the transfer windows down as the moments when things get shaken up. However, they are all but irrelevant in comparison with what happens when the sun goes in
BIG ECK CAN CONTINUE TO TAKE VILLA FORWARD
Racing & Football Outlook October 4-10, 2011 One of the less than endearing spectacles we witnessed over the summer was the reaction of Aston Villa supporters to the news of Alex McLeish’s appointment as their new manager. Former Sunderland and England player Len Shackleton famously left a blank page in his book to illustrate what the average football chairman knows about football, but it’s increasingly the case these days that the average football supporter is so blinkered that he has little or no rational appreciation of the sport either. It could well be the case that Randy Lerner and his board got lucky in the short term with McLeish’s appointment. But the fact remains that, despite taking bitter rivals Birmingham down last season, McLeish’s arrival has heralded an impressive start to the season for Villa, who are still unbeaten in the league this season. Of course, I understand why Villa supporters reacted so emotionally to Big Eck’s appointment at Villa Park but the reaction was so vitriolic it’s amazing that McLeish didn’t tell them to stuff their job. That he didn’t, I suspect, had a lot to do with the way Lerner and his management team have run the club
FORECASTS SAY TOP SIX NOT BEYOND MAGPIES
Racing & Football Outlook September 27-October 3, 2011 I posted a few of my Premier League numbers online last week and received a lot of comments in reply regarding the teams who appear to be making good on the temporary (or otherwise) decline of Arsenal. There is plenty that could be said for many of those clubs currently challenging for an early place in the top ten but the most interesting story that is emerging concerns two clubs that hardly anyone was saying anything complimentary about when the season kicked off, Everton and Newcastle. With no real money to speak of – at least in terms of the amounts that are deemed meaningful at the rarefied levels of finance in the Premier League – and with both clubs having chairman who aren’t necessarily what you would call fan favourites, I think it’s fair to say that consideration of both clubs was just as likely to have been with a view to the relegation markets as to the likelihood of appearing in the upper reaches of the Premier League table. Both clubs are up there, though, and I’m focusing on the Magpies this week. A couple of seasons ago Mike Ashley
LONG-TERM FORECAST SAYS PAIN FOR DONNY
Racing & Football Outlook September 20-26, 2011 THE Premier League aside, relegation markets are usually pretty dead affairs but that doesn’t mean I don’t look at them. Far from it. Having a fully automated system means that with every game played, the Outlook Index recompiles itself along with all the associated outputs relating to match odds, points forecasts and outright odds forecasts before scouring Betfair to look for somewhere to take advantage of its findings. And, when it comes to those relegation markets with their sometimes ludicrous overrounds, it’s fair to say that it’s as rare as an admission of responsibility from Arsene Wenger that the software finds a bet. In the past few weeks, however, the relegation Championship market has reached the point where the software says that this season’s whipping boys, Doncaster, have become a must bet. Readers who were smart enough to follow the advice to get the hell out of the Crawley position will have pocketed a few quid and I suggest using it to back Donny to go down. That is based partly on my league points forecasts for the season but, also, and more directly, from the odds forecasts for Championship relegation which are
